One of the most common errors in markets is believing that cycles have been “eliminated” during optimism, or fearing they are permanently broken during panic. Cycles are not variables to be predicted—they are ever-present conditions.

Economic activity, industry development, and asset prices all move in cycles. Each iteration may look different, but the underlying rhythm persists. The issue is not whether cycles exist, but whether investors understand which phase they are in, and whether current pricing has over-absorbed a single narrative.

In uptrends, risk is often underestimated and returns extrapolated linearly. In downturns, temporary pressures are easily mistaken for structural collapse. Mature investment processes do not chase cycle bottoms or tops; they assess how cycles influence expectations, positioning, and capital flows, and adjust exposure accordingly.

History shows that structural opportunities emerge not in the most comfortable part of the cycle, but when uncertainty rises and disagreement widens—precisely when price tends to reflect short-term pressure rather than long-term capability.

Investors who survive cycles do so not by predicting inflection points, but by maintaining cognitive flexibility and discipline—avoiding excessive optimism in expansions and preserving long-term conviction in contractions. When investment respects cycles instead of denying them, time becomes a force that corrects mispricing rather than amplifying volatility.